BILL Grant’s Westminster seat is at threat if the UK government continues with its ‘Chequers’ brexit strategy according to a right-wing pro-leave think tank.

After a survey of the country’s most marginal Tory seats, Global Britain issued a warning that the party faces a ‘humiliating loss’ if the UK government does not accept its proposed Chequers Deal fails to deliver the Brexit voters were expecting.

Polling, carried out by IQ Research after the Chequers plan was agreed at Cabinet, the survey of 500 electors, weighted for each individual constituency and totalling 22,000 voters, found widespread opposition to the Chequers plan – enough to convince an average of ten per cent of voters to not vote for the Conservative Party candidate.

When asked “If your local MP supported the Chequers deal, would this make you more or less likely to vote for them in an election?” the responses were – a net 19 per cent less likely in Ayr; a net 12 per cent less likely in Gordon; and a net 18 per cent less likely in Stirling – all significantly larger margins than the percentage Conservative majorities.

The average for those three seats of 16.3% less likely to vote Conservative suggests that if similar figures were replicated across Scotland – and given the geographical spread of the constituencies that would be a reasonable assumption to make – any Scottish Conservative MP with a majority of less than 16 per cent would be vulnerable to defeat.

Such an outcome would mean the loss of eleven of the thirteen Conservative seats – Stirling; Gordon; Ayr; Ochil; Angus; Moray; East Renfrewshire; Banff & Buchan; Aberdeen South; Dumfries & Galloway; and West Aberdeenshire.

The Global Britain Polling only considered Stirling (0.3 per cent majority); Gordon (4.8 per cent); and Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock (6.0 per cent) – but there are two more below seven per cent and a further three below nine per cent majorities.